200,000 asylum seekers lose five-year settlement path under new rules
A footnote in the Home Office plan replaces a guaranteed route to indefinite leave for applicants who arrived irregularly with 30-month renewals.
By Elena Perry ·
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has removed a five-year settlement guarantee for 200,000 successful asylum applicants, replacing it with a requirement to renew their status every 30 months. The change appears in the fine print of the government's latest immigration plan, which was published on Monday. This cohort had been told in March that they could apply for indefinite leave to remain after five years if their asylum claims were submitted by March 1, 2026. That assurance is no longer present in the updated policy documents.
The new rules shift these individuals into a scheme known as core protection. Under this framework, adults and their children receive an initial permission to stay lasting only 30 months. They must then seek renewal on a rolling basis. If the Home Office determines that conditions in their home country have become safe, their refugee status can be revoked. This stands in contrast to the previous understanding that these applicants would retain eligibility for settlement after five years.
The policy shift follows a period of conflicting signals from the government. In November 2025, Mahmood posted on the social media platform X that only illegal entrants who were not refugees would face a 30-year wait for settlement. She shared an image of the white cliffs of Dover with that message. The House of Commons library cited this post as evidence that non-refugees who secured visas after illegal entry or overstaying would face the longer delay. However, the latest document does not explicitly exclude those who have been granted refugee status from the shorter, renewable timeline.
The Refugee Council argues that the hardening of rules creates confusion for people who have already faced war and persecution. Jon Featonby, the group's chief policy analyst, stated that changing positions causes distress and uncertainty. He noted that thousands of refugees who believed they were weeks or months from settlement may now face another 25 years of waiting. Featonby described the new status as a source of fear for people trying to build new lives while their permission to stay expires every 30 months for decades.
The Home Office responded to the criticism by stating that there has been no policy change since last year's proposals. The department declined to comment specifically on Mahmood's previous social media post or the footnote in the recent document that triggers the move to core protection. The department said it would not elaborate further on the specific wording used in the new guidance.
Mahmood presented the broader set of immigration proposals to MPs on Monday. She said the right to live in the UK forever will no longer be granted almost automatically after five years. Instead, she argued that settlement will be earned under the new model set out before parliament. Some proposals, including those for care workers and their families, were softened following concerns from unions, cabinet members, and backbench Labour MPs.
Under the new plans, refugees who arrive by irregular means, such as small boats, will face a 30-year wait for settlement. Last year's consultation included a 10-year penalty for irregular arrival, which was not expected to apply to those granted refugee status. The current plan consolidates these changes into a single document titled A fairer pathway to settlement. The government expects to process decades of repeated applications under the new core protection scheme, a task Featonby warned will come at an enormous cost to the public purse.
