2026 Midterms: Democrats reclaim key voter blocs lost in 2024
An AP survey of over 100,000 voters indicates that young, Hispanic, Black, and moderate voters shifted back to the Democratic column, reversing gains President Trump made two years ago.
By Elena Perry ·
The 2026 midterm elections marked a return to traditional voting patterns for several demographic groups that had drifted toward the Republican Party in 2024. An AP Voter Poll surveying more than 100,000 voters across all 50 states shows that Democrats regained substantial ground with young people, Hispanic voters, Black men, and moderates. This shift reversed many of the gains President Donald Trump secured in the presidential election two years prior.
In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris and President Trump drew roughly equal support from voters under 30. The current data shows a dramatic reversal. About 70 percent of voters under 30 supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, while only about 30 percent voted for the Republican. First-time midterm voters, who skew younger, also predominantly chose Democratic candidates. However, this age group represented only about 10 percent of the national electorate, which limited the total impact of the shift.
Sentiment among young voters indicated deep dissatisfaction with current leadership. About half of voters under 30 described themselves as angry about the direction of the country. This figure stood in contrast to about one-third of voters ages 65 and older. Additionally, about 60 percent of young voters stated that opposing Trump was a primary reason for their vote in the House race. This share was higher than the roughly 50 percent of voters ages 30 to 44 and 40 percent of those 45 and older who cited opposition to the President.
Hispanic voters moved decisively away from the Republican Party. In 2024, roughly 40 percent of Hispanic voters supported Trump. In the 2026 midterms, only about one-third backed the Republican candidate in their local House race. Conversely, about 60 percent of Hispanic voters nationally supported the Democratic candidate. This trend was visible in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. About 60 percent of Hispanic voters in that race supported Talarico, compared to about 30 percent for Paxton.
Black voters, particularly Black men, also reversed their 2024 shift. In the 2024 presidential election, roughly one-quarter of Black men voted for Trump. In the 2026 House races, only about 10 percent of Black men supported the Republican candidate. About 90 percent of Black voters nationally supported the Democratic candidate, up from the roughly 80 percent who voted for Harris in 2024. This support was a factor in the Georgia gubernatorial race, where Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor. About 90 percent of Black men voted for Bottoms, a higher share than the three-quarters who supported Harris in 2024.
Moderate voters played a critical role in several Senate races. About two-thirds of moderates supported the Democratic candidate in their local House race, up from the roughly 60 percent who backed Harris in 2024. A large majority of moderates, about 80 percent, said Congress was not doing enough to check the presidency. Many also reported experiencing at least moderate hardship due to inflation. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about 70 percent of moderate voters, a large increase from the half that supported Harris. Similar gains were seen in Iowa, where Josh Turek won two-thirds of moderates, and in North Carolina, where Roy Cooper won about three-quarters.
Economic concerns drove voting behavior among lower-income households. More than half of voters with a 2025 household income under $50,000 voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race. This group was split evenly between Trump and Harris in 2024. About 30 percent of U.S. voters nationally report a family income under $50,000. These voters were more likely than higher-income groups to cite the cost of food, gas, and utilities as concerns. About 60 percent of voters earning under $50,000 said the cost of living was a crucial factor in their vote, compared to about half of those earning $50,000 or more.
The election results show a clear preference for Democratic candidates among these specific demographics. The data highlights a correction in voting habits following the 2024 cycle. Voters in these groups returned to parties that historically aligned with their economic and political views.
