Kuleba warns of US pressure as Europe seeks role in Ukraine peace talks

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that the United States is currently applying maximum pressure on Kyiv to force a concession in the ongoing conflict with Russia. In an interview published on November 8, 2026, Kuleba said that Washington is using the release of purchased defense systems as a bargaining chip. He noted that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reported that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has paused approval for Patriot and NASAMS systems that Ukraine already paid for.

Kuleba, who led the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry for over four years, described this tactic as a method to push Ukraine toward compliance. He explained that the administration aims to make Kyiv say it will surrender to allow a deal to form. He contrasted this with the period in late February 2025, which he identified as the most severe moment of isolation. At that time, official intelligence sharing halted and support programs were wound down after the Oval Office meeting. Kuleba said the current situation is less dramatic because Ukraine has adapted to deteriorating external conditions over the last year and a half.

The structure of the current negotiations differs from previous attempts because the United States initiated the process. Kuleba observed that Washington is bypassing the traditional E3 group of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Instead, the US is drawing in Finland and Norway. The warm-up round took place in Oslo, where Zelenskyy met with US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff. Kuleba called Norway a key player for Ukraine because it is one of the largest donors. He stated that the country providing the money effectively dictates the terms of the agreement.

Kuleba argued that the primary lever for pressure is now money rather than weapons. He said European leaders could force capitulation by delaying financial support for 2027 or 2028. He noted that the European Union is currently battling over its budget, and leaders are asking the European Commission for cuts. While funds for Ukraine are currently allocated, the political room for maneuver is shrinking due to upcoming elections in France and the influence of the AfD party in Germany. Kuleba said he does not see evidence that Europeans have joined forces with Americans to pressure Ukraine, but the risk is rising.

The former minister assessed the role of new European negotiators, including Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. He characterized Finland as having less leverage over Ukraine compared to Norway. He noted that Norway participates in the F-16 fighter jet program and provides macro-financial support. He said he has no reason to believe Støre would sacrifice Ukraine for a quick stop to the war. Kuleba stated that the backbone of support consists of Norway, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Denmark, and Ukraine cannot afford to lose any of them.

Kuleba suggested that Russia is using negotiations to change global circumstances rather than to end the war on its terms. He said Putin aims to turn the US against Ukraine to secure funding from Europe. He referenced a November 2021 memorandum from the Russian Foreign Ministry to the US delegation that asked for NATO borders to revert to their 1997 position. That document proposed leaving the entire Warsaw Pact region defenseless. Kuleba said this aligns with Putin's model of the post-World War II order, which he views as the zenith of Russian imperial influence.

A faction within Ukraine supports a rapid peace deal based on the belief that Russia is a rational actor seeking only financial gain. Kuleba called this a "peace now party" that wants to give up everything to stop the fighting. He argued this view ignores the documents left behind by Russian partners. He said many people previously believed Trump was a simple businessman, but his second term reflects a different mindset. He ended his assessment by noting that the second-term leader views the situation as a house fire where the entire village must burn to achieve the desired outcome.