Latino Voter Support for Trump Falls to 27 Percent Ahead of Midterms

Latino voters in the United States have shifted their political alignment, with recent polling showing a sharp decline in support for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. The group, which constitutes approximately 36 million eligible voters for the upcoming midterms, now registers a 27 percent approval rating for the president. This represents a drop from the 45 to 48 percent support levels recorded during the 2024 election cycle.

The shift in sentiment is driven primarily by economic concerns and the intensity of federal immigration enforcement. Polling data indicates a nearly 20-point decline in Latino support for the GOP since 2024. By October, just 26 percent of Hispanic respondents to a Reuters/Ipsos poll said they planned to vote Republican. This trend is making numerous House and Senate contests more competitive than analysts anticipated at the start of the campaign.

Mike Madrid, a former Republican political strategist who is now an Independent, noted that the era of a consistent 75-25 Democratic advantage among Latino voters has ended. He argued that the group no longer fits the traditional mold of a unified demographic block similar to Black voters or white evangelicals. Madrid described these voters as "swingy" and "courtable," stating that they are the only rational voters in a representative system because they do not award loyalty to parties that mislead them.

The top issues for Latino voters in the 2026 midterms are the cost of living and inflation, immigration and deportations, and jobs and wages. These economic pressures have overtaken other factors in determining voting intent. In South Texas, particularly along the Rio Grande Valley, Democratic primary turnout earlier this year exceeded the general election turnout for Kamala Harris in 2024. This surge in participation helped State Rep. James Talarico secure the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, where he currently leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in polls.

The Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) has also gained traction within the Latino voting bloc. Candidates endorsed by the DSA have won key primaries in Los Angeles, New York City, and Florida. In New York, Rep. Adriano Espaillat was defeated in the Democratic primary by DSA challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier. In Florida, Angie Nixon, a DSA-endorsed state representative, won the U.S. Senate primary by capturing heavily Latino counties such as Miami-Dade and Broward. Matt Barreto, president of BSP Research, said the DSA appeals to working-class communities by proposing solutions like free child care.

Republican officials maintain that the polling overstates the shift in support. Ronnie Lucero, congressional liaison for the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, described the dip in support as slight. He argued that President Trump successfully curbed the flow of migrants across the southern border, a point of pride in his home state of New Mexico. Bettina Rodriguez, a Cuban American former vice mayor of Doral, Florida, said the mood among Hispanic Republicans is more confident than the national narrative suggests. She claimed that the administration has kept its promises on the economy and border security.

The transformation of federal immigration agencies into large, heavily funded police forces has altered how Latinos view the issue. While immigration rarely ranks as the top issue for this demographic, the administration’s aggressive tactics have increased its relevance. Many voters have witnessed federal agents deployed on their streets and have known individuals questioned or detained. Martha Arias, an immigration attorney in Miami, expressed frustration over the current enforcement environment. The combination of economic stress and visible government action has made the Latino vote a central factor in the November elections.