Top ranked Miami faces rare betting disadvantage at Notre Dame
Injuries to a key wide receiver have turned the nation's number one team into a touchdown underdog for Saturday's game.
By Riya Zhao ·
History suggests the favorite will likely win on Saturday night, yet the betting market disagrees.
No. 1 Miami (8-0) travels to No. 4 Notre Dame (7-1) in South Bend, Indiana. The Hurricanes hold the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings, while the Fighting Irish sit at No. 11. Despite the ranking disparity, sportsbooks list Notre Dame as more than a touchdown favorite. This spread makes Miami the largest underdog among top-ranked teams in twelve years.
Malachi Toney, a star wide receiver for Miami, is injured and expected to miss games until December. His absence has shifted the point spread dramatically. Johnny Avello, Director of Sports Operations at DraftKings, noted that Toney accounts for half of Miami's offensive production. Avello stated that the betting line may react too strongly to the injury. He predicted the spread could dip below seven points by kickoff.
The last time an AP No. 1 ranked team faced such a large deficit in a regular season game was in 2014. Mississippi State was a touchdown underdog to No. 4 Alabama and lost 25-20. Clemson also appeared as a 6.5-point underdog to Alabama in the 2016 national title game. While No. 1 teams have been underdogs twice this season, the margin was only 2.5 points in both cases.
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, agrees the current line favors Notre Dame too heavily. As of Friday afternoon, 58% of bettors chose the Notre Dame moneyline. However, 73% of bettors took Miami with the spread. Feazel believes the line will adjust downward before the game begins.
The injury has also altered the Heisman Trophy race. Toney was a favorite before the news broke. He is now off most betting boards. Darian Mensah, Miami's quarterback, is now a slight underdog at odds of +175. He faces Jeremiah Smith, an Ohio State receiver, who is listed at +160. Feazel noted that a win in this game would make it difficult to take the award away from Mensah.
