Beijing, Moscow may move if Trump weakens

Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, warned that Russia and China may adopt a more assertive posture within the next two years. He told CNBC that these nations could interpret recent political shifts in Washington as a signal that President Donald Trump is politically weakened. Kagan made these remarks on the show Squawk Box Asia, noting that Democrats now control both chambers of Congress.

The analyst linked this diplomatic risk to tangible military constraints. He stated that the war with Iran revealed Washington’s limited capacity to project force in the Pacific. Kagan pointed to data from the Congressional Budget Office, which estimated that the U.S. depleted up to two-thirds of its missile-defense interceptors since June 2025. Those interceptors were largely spent defending Israel against Iranian attacks, leaving the U.S. with constrained inventories for several years.

Naval assets face similar pressure. Kagan noted that three U.S. aircraft carriers are currently deployed to the Middle East. This deployment reduces the number of vessels available for the Asian theater, potentially creating an opening for China to act with greater confidence in the region.

Kagan assessed that Trump’s current priority is securing economic deals with Beijing rather than confronting the country. He predicted that this diplomatic approach would encourage China to be even more aggressive. In December, Trump approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan. He later paused a second package valued at approximately $14 billion, describing it as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China.

Taiwan’s strategic position remains a focal point of tension. China claims the self-governing island as its own territory. U.S. law requires Washington to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, even though no mutual defense treaty exists. Former CIA Director William Burns stated in 2023 that President Xi Jinping instructed the military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Burns clarified that this readiness did not imply a decision to launch an invasion in that specific year.

These assessments arrive as officials discuss a potential trilateral summit. U.S., Chinese, and Russian representatives are considering a meeting between Trump, Xi, and President Vladimir Putin at the APEC Leaders' event in Shenzhen later this month. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday that Beijing is in communication with relevant parties regarding the gathering. No agenda has been announced for the proposed session.