Knesset Stalemate: Israeli Leaders Face Tough Math
No party secured a majority in the recent election, forcing negotiations that could lead to fragile coalitions or a repeat vote early next year.
By Riya Zhao ·
The outcome of the recent Israeli general election has left the nation without a clear governing majority. While the results determine the composition of the 120-member Knesset, they do not identify the next prime minister. The political path forward is blocked by a fragmented assembly where no single camp holds enough seats to govern alone.
Party leaders must now negotiate to assemble a coalition of at least 61 seats. This threshold is required to form a government in the 120-seat parliament. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, failed to secure a majority. The Arab-led parties, which won a historic 19 seats, hold the balance of power and may decide which coalition can survive.
The most mathematically straightforward option involves Eisenkot aligning with the Arab-led parties. This alliance would command 67 seats, providing a solid majority against Netanyahu. However, this path carries high political risk for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies. Israel’s Arab citizens comprise 20% of the population and are Palestinians whose families remained in the country after the 1948 war. Many Jewish Israelis view these citizens with suspicion due to their close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Only one Arab party has joined a governing coalition previously, in 2021, and that government lasted approximately 18 months.
Netanyahu is already framing any such alliance as a betrayal of Israel’s Jewish identity and a national security threat. He aims to pressure Eisenkot’s right-leaning allies to reject the partnership. Conversely, Netanyahu could attempt to form a unity government by convincing Eisenkot to join his bloc. This arrangement would also yield a 67-seat majority, pushing Arab-led, ultranationalist, and ultra-Orthodox factions into opposition. Such a government could address issues like military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox and support the economy, but it would require Eisenkot’s camp to break promises made after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack.
Another potential strategy involves Netanyahu poaching defectors from the opposition bloc. He could target right-wing leaders Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman, who oppose partnering with Arab parties due to their nationalist stances on West Bank settlements. However, both leaders have clashed personally with Netanyahu for years and oppose the military exemptions that Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies demand. Eisenkot has fewer such opportunities because Netanyahu’s Likud party and far-right allies have remained fiercely loyal.
If neither side secures a majority, Israel faces new elections likely early next year. Netanyahu’s government would continue in a caretaker capacity until then. This scenario presents distinct risks for both camps. Opposition leaders, who gained momentum from tens of thousands of Israelis flying abroad to vote, may lose that advantage in a second round. Netanyahu would gain time to shore up his coalition, as smaller right-wing parties that missed the parliamentary threshold effectively wasted pro-Netanyahu votes in the current election.
The possibility of repeated voting is not without precedent. Following a similar stalemate in 2019, Israel held five elections over a period of 3 1/2 years. The current assembly must decide whether to bridge deep ideological divides or return to the ballot box.
