Trump's Midterm Gamble: Rallying for a Party Struggling to Hold Ground

President Donald Trump faces a pivotal midterm election on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with the outcome determining which party controls Congress for the final two years of his second term. All 435 seats in the U.S. House and 35 of 100 Senate seats are up for grabs, alongside 36 governorships. Republicans currently hold 218 House seats and 53 Senate seats. Democrats need a net gain of three House districts and four Senate seats to achieve a majority in either chamber.

The election is a referendum on Trump’s second term, with voters struggling with high prices and anger over an unpopular war with Iran. 35% of U.S. Adults approve of Trump’s job performance, while only 25% approve of his handling of the economy. Approximately seven in ten Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction, with most blaming the president for the cost of living.

Trump has campaigned vigorously, holding dozens of rallies to support his party. His schedule included stops in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. He concluded his recent rally tour in Salina, Kansas, where he urged supporters to vote for Republicans. The president said, "I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot." Despite his active presence, many Republican candidates have kept their distance from the president to maintain a distinct image with voters.

The president has continued to make claims about voting fraud, including assertions that noncitizens vote in large numbers. His administration has filed lawsuits in Alaska and California related to election certification and ballot handling. A federal judge temporarily barred the administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, while another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. Democrats fear these actions could lead to interference and intimidation of local election officials.

Money is playing a significant role in the 2026 elections, which are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees have outraised and outspent their Democratic counterparts, helped by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats have outraised their opponents. An AP analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1% of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts that Trump won in 2024. This included more than $850 million in spending in areas where he won by 10 points or more.

Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters emphasized the importance of voter turnout. He stated, "Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for." In contrast, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene said, "The American people are angry. They want change." The AP notes that Republicans are bracing to lose the House while fighting to hold the Senate, with one or two seats potentially tipping the balance in either chamber.

The Senate race is particularly competitive in several key states. Ballotpedia identifies thirteen battleground races, including Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins faces a competitive challenge from Troy Jackson. The AP notes that economic strain and tariffs have made the state a toss-up. In Kansas, a reliably Republican state, the race for the Senate seat is central to the fight for control. The Trump administration has even filed a lawsuit related to the certification of the Senate result in Alaska.

Governor races are also closely watched, with Democrats defending five governorships in states that Trump won in 2024. These include Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans are defending seats in New Hampshire and Vermont, states that Harris won. In Georgia, Republican Rick Jackson faces Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. In Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Amy Acton. The AP calls Texas, Florida, and Iowa competitive governor races, with Democrats hoping to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades.

More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. The U.S. Postal Service has added hours, staff, and special lines to ensure mail ballots are counted on time. Wall Street is watching the results closely, as Reuters notes that the outcome could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. The stakes are high, as a Democratic win in even one chamber would make investigations and possible impeachment proceedings likely.

Voters across the country are heading to the polls today with varied opinions on the president’s performance. Mark Barker of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said he has been following Trump closely and thinks he is doing an awesome job. James Moore, a 57-year-old librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, expressed frustration with rising costs. He said, "I'm paying more taxes. I'm paying more for my healthcare. I'm paying more for everything." The election results will determine the legislative landscape for the final two years of the current administration.

If Democrats win control of a chamber, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries would be the first Black speaker and has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight. A strong Democratic night would also boost potential 2028 candidates such as Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans have attempted to beat the typical midterm pattern of the president's party losing seats through redistricting, but new districts in states like Florida may not vote as drawn. The polls are open now, and the final tally will reveal the next direction for American governance.